NBA Finals

Well since I lost so much money on the conference finals, I figured why not lose some more on the finals?

According to the JJ Stats supercomputer...

The odds of winning the NBA championship are:

Lakers 54.2% or -118
Celtics 45.8% or +118

This is using regular season stats only, which rates the Lakers and Celtics neck and neck, the difference being home court advantage.

After watching the Celtics handle both the Cavs and the Magic (who were statistically hands down the best team in the NBA this year), one has to consider the possibility that the Celtics are a better team than their regular season stats indicate. I don't really like to speculate on reasons why, but it is logical considering that Kevin Garnett may have played injured for much of the season.

If I incorporate post season statistics into the model, I have the Celtics as the superior team.

The odds using post season statistics:

Celtics 54.5% -120
Lakers 45.5% +120

Either way, there is significant value on betting the Celtics at +180. The added bonus, of course, is that it gives you yet another reason to root against Kobe and the Lakers.

My New Place

Just moved into a new place in the town of Yangshuo. Total cost for my new room, including A/C, television, furniture, internet access, and housekeeping: 700 yuan (about $102)... for the whole month! That's less than what a mediocre hotel room in Macau goes for on a Saturday night!

................................................................................................

After spending most of my first month abroad grinding live poker, I wanted to find a peaceful city to unwind in for a bit. I think I have found the perfect place in Yangshuo.


Yangshuo is a small town in southern China famous for its karst landscape and the scenic Li River that runs alongside it. It is a popular tourist destination with a wide variety of restaurants, bars, and shops. Yet it is a small town, small enough to walk anywhere within 20 minutes, and noticeably lacking the traffic, air pollution, and hordes of Chinese people characteristic of most Chinese cities. Furthermore, should I get bored, there are numerous outdoor activities nearby such as rafting, hiking, cycling, caving, and rock climbing.


It is also dirt cheap. Besides my room, the food here costs practically nothing. A bottled water from the grocery store costs 1 yuan (about $0.14). A delicious bowl of rice noodles with pork and vegetables costs only 5 yuan (about $0.70). The entire meal below cost me 20 yuan (about $3):


I imagine it wouldn't be too hard to get by here on $500/month (or ball outta control for $1000/month).

I have enrolled in a Chinese language school and will be spending at least the next month here. I'll be receiving one-on-one language instruction for five hours a day, five days a week, as well as practicing with the locals. Additionally, I intend to check out some of the outdoor activities and attractions that the area is famous for.

It's nice to know that should the cards turn on me and I'm ever living on broke street, there are places like Yangshuo where I can live very comfortably for practically nothing.

Macau

I first visited Macau 10 months ago. Since then I have returned 6 more times and will likely be returning in another month or two. LOL! I guess you could say that I am fond of the place.

Macau is what I would call a boomtown. A Chinese "special administrative region" that is officially a part of China yet retains autonomous rule, Macau is best known as Asia's premier destination for legalized gambling. Macau is proximally located within a 3 hour drive of 100 million CAGs (Crazy Asian Gamblers), within a 3 hour flight of 1 billion CAGs, and within a 5 hour flight of 3 billion CAGs. Since opening up the casino industry in 2002, it's economy has boomed, fueled by growth in the gaming industry and foreign investment. The "Las Vegas of Asia" actually surpassed Las Vegas in annual gaming revenues in 2006 and has only picked up steam since then. In 2009, the Macau gaming industry generated approximately $15 billion in revenues. Gaming revenues for 2010 thus far are up 70% year over year.

All this economic activity within a region that occupies a space of 11 square miles and has a population of 540,000.

Even over a 10 month period, I've been able to witness the growth first hand. In the last year, a spate of ostentatious new casino resorts have opened including the City of Dreams, the Four Seasons, L'Arc, and Oceanus.





A number of major developments are still in the works including Galaxy World, Wynn Cotai, and the next phase of Las Vegas Sands Cotai strip buildout which includes the Shangri-La, Traders, and the Sheraton.



Naturally this raises concerns over a construction bubble and an overhang of supply, but on the contrary: I can say from experience that hotel reservations are getting even harder to book. Hotel rooms and other services in the city are actually increasing in price. On weekends, reservations for modest 3 star hotels now go for a minimum of $110+, exorbitant by Asian standards.

Note that this growth has occurred, despite the efforts of the Chinese government to curb travel to Macau and a slowdown in the global economy.

The trend benefits not just the gaming industry, but the broader economy as a whole. Money flows into Macau and does not flow back out, making Macau a logical place to invest.

I have not yet formulated a way to capitalize on this trend, other than to sit at a poker table and wait for moneyed tourists to give me their money. I do have a few ideas that I will write about in the future.

For now, here is a list of publicly traded Macau based gaming stocks:

Wynn Macau (Wynn Macau, Encore Macau): 1128.HK
Sands China (Sands Macau, Venetian Macau): 1928.HK
SJM Holdings (19 casino properties including Grand Lisboa, L'Arc, and Oceanus): 0880.HK
Galaxy Entertainment (5 casino properties including Starworld): oo27.HK
Melco Crown (City of Dreams, Altira): MPEL

Additionally the following American casino operators have casino interests in Macau, but are not pure plays on the Macau market:

WYNN
LVS
MGM

NBA Playoffs

It's 2AM in Macau and I am blogging in the middle of Sanado Square because I wanted to get my NBA picks on the record before the Conference finals start in a few hours.

According to the all-knowing JJ Stats supercomputer...

Conference Finals Odds:
Orlando beats Boston 74.5% of the time
LA beats Phoenix 82.6% of the time

Odds of winning the ship (Sorry, Suns fans):
Orlando at 57%
LA at 27%
Boston at 13%
Phoenix at 3%

For the second straight year, I have some futures bets on Orlando. They are not as underrated as they were last year (I had a load of Orlando futures last year at 20-1 that were looking pretty sweet til Derek Fisher drove a dagger through my heart), but there is still some value on them right now at +150 to win the championship.

The Conference Finals line versus Boston, however, is more or less efficient at -270, which basically means the Western Conference teams are overrated and that there will be a lot of value betting on Orlando (or for that matter, Boston) should they make the NBA Finals.

As always, gambling advice within these pages is meant for entertainment purposes only.

The NBA night games start at 7AM here and the Sunday afternoon Boston/Orlando game actually starts at 3:30AM. But I might go ahead pull an all nighter at the Wynn poker room (which is about the only place in town I can watch the games at these hours) to watch game one.

Come on Orlando! GOGOGOGO!

The Canton Fair

Update: I am a couple weeks into my trip and I have not yet lost all my money, though I am already falling behind on my blogging. In fairness, it has been a rather hectic two weeks.

Last week, I attended the Canton Fair in Guangzhou. The Canton Fair is the largest Import and Export fair in China. Thousands of Chinese manufacturers and suppliers gather to showcase their wares to vendors from all over the world.

The event is massive. It occupies 3 enormous convention centers in Guangzhou housing thousands of booths. And even then, the event needs to be broken down into three phases, each phase focusing on a specific subset of goods. This year there was a total of over 23 thousand exhibitors. The city is so flooded with buyers and entrepreneurs from all over the world that hotel prices all over are typically marked up 300%.

I attended the 3rd phase of the Fair with my friend from the US. He is starting a business importing Chinese goods to the US. Like the hundreds of thousands of other buyers in attendance, the premise of his business is a simple one. He is seeking out marketable products manufactured in China for dirt cheap and selling them in the US for twice the price.

One reason the business model is so appealing because it doesn't necessarily require any extensive expertise or training. With a little bit of initiative, research, salesmanship, and hard work, a small investment could pay significant dividends.

My friend has already put in a significant amount of legwork:

• He has identified a product that he believes has significant sales potential in the US.
• Researched the market online, attending trade shows, and talking with potential vendors.
  
• Contacted and established relationships with a number of suppliers in China, evaluating them on the quality of their product and their pricing.
• And outlined a marketing and sales strategy, involving multiple sales channels.

It helps that he is a native Chinese and already has contacts and resources in the import/export business. He is also a natural businessman and I have no doubt that he will be successful.

The Fair was quite an eye-opener and I am actually tempted to go work for my friend to learn the in's and out's of the business, though that would mean moving back to the US and working for a living. :P

I do recommend checking out the Canton Fair to anyone regardless of their interest in the import/export business. It takes place twice a year, so in 6 months it will happen all over again.

Here are a few pics: