NBA Finals

Well since I lost so much money on the conference finals, I figured why not lose some more on the finals?

According to the JJ Stats supercomputer...

The odds of winning the NBA championship are:

Lakers 54.2% or -118
Celtics 45.8% or +118

This is using regular season stats only, which rates the Lakers and Celtics neck and neck, the difference being home court advantage.

After watching the Celtics handle both the Cavs and the Magic (who were statistically hands down the best team in the NBA this year), one has to consider the possibility that the Celtics are a better team than their regular season stats indicate. I don't really like to speculate on reasons why, but it is logical considering that Kevin Garnett may have played injured for much of the season.

If I incorporate post season statistics into the model, I have the Celtics as the superior team.

The odds using post season statistics:

Celtics 54.5% -120
Lakers 45.5% +120

Either way, there is significant value on betting the Celtics at +180. The added bonus, of course, is that it gives you yet another reason to root against Kobe and the Lakers.